From the PokerWise learning material

When does a bluff make sense?

A bluff is a decision with a reason and a price. It is not simply a large bet or an attempt to look confident. Before risking chips, identify the hands you expect your opponent to fold and why they would fold them.

Start with the folds your bet needs

For a pure bluff with no chance of winning when called, the break-even fold frequency is bet ÷ (pot + bet). A €30 bluff into €60 needs a fold one third of the time to break even, ignoring future action and fees.

A €60 bet into the same pot needs a fold half the time. A larger bet can put more pressure on an opponent, but it also risks more. Choose a size for a purpose rather than assuming bigger always means better.

Ask who you are trying to move off a hand

An opponent who calls frequently may find reasons to continue even with a marginal hand. A player who folds too often presents a different problem. Your read should come from observed actions, not the label you gave them after one pot.

Also count the players still involved. Getting one person to fold is different from getting several people to fold. Consider what their ranges look like after the action so far.

Your line needs a coherent story

The board and your earlier actions affect which strong hands you can plausibly represent. A sudden river bet is not convincing merely because the river card looks scary. Ask whether that bet fits the hands you would have played this way.

Position and stack depth affect the plan too. If you intend to bet more than one street, think about the cards that support continuing and the cards that should make you stop.

Separate a bluff from frustration

A semi-bluff can win by a fold or by improving when called. A pure bluff relies on folds. Neither becomes sound just because you feel overdue to win a pot.

Before betting, state your reason in one sentence: which range is folding, why this board and size create pressure, and what happens if called. If you cannot explain it, checking or folding may deserve more attention than an automatic attempt to rescue the hand.

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